Divergence

Prediction markets and traditional markets often price the same question, and they do not always agree. This ledger holds each material gap from the day it opens to the day it closes — converged, or settled by events, with a record of which side sat closer to the outcome. Prediction-market probabilities are quoted in cents; traditional readings are quoted in their own units, from the named source. Gaps open and close on fixed, versioned thresholds, not on editorial mood.