The Mensor

THE MENSOR · INDICES · AS OF JUN 11, 2026

Four instruments.
One market, read across venues.

Each index aggregates prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi into a single legible figure — liquidity-weighted, fee-adjusted, aware of how each contract resolves. Where the venues disagree, the gap is the subject, not the noise.

How the indices are built →
MMI · Mensor Macro Index100.8
MMIMensor Macro IndexMacro100.8▼ -3.4 · 24hNEUTRALMGRIMensor Geopolitical Risk IndexGeopolitics / conflict risk33.3▼ -1.1 · 24hLOWMAIOFORTHCOMINGMensor AI Optimism IndexAIFIRST READING FORTHCOMING—MPDIMensor Policy Disruption IndexPolitics / policy disruption78.2▼ -1.2 · 24hCHARGEDMATIMensor Attention IndexCulture83.80▲ +5.80 · 24hSPORTS
Subindices of the Mensor Macro IndexMMI
Mensor Rate Path IndexMRPI0.48-0.03→
Subindices of the Mensor Geopolitical Risk IndexMGRI
Mensor Iran Corridor IndexMGRI-IRAN · ELEVATED42.2-2.9→Mensor Taiwan Corridor IndexMGRI-TAIWAN · CALM6.6+0.0→Mensor Ukraine Corridor IndexMGRI-UKRAINE · ELEVATED55.2→Mensor Gaza Corridor IndexMGRI-GAZA93.0+1.9→
THE WIDEST OPEN DIVERGENCE

US recession in 2026. Prediction markets sit at 18¢ (Polymarket+Kalshi) against a traditional reading of 27¢ (FRED T10Y3M + NY Fed model) — a 10 pts gap. That disagreement is the subject, not the noise.

Open the divergence ledger →

The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. An index is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.