The Mensor's indices are liquidity-weighted rather than volume-weighted. Each contributing market is weighted by the depth of its order book at midpoint, after fees, rather than by the notional volume traded over a window.
Volume-weighting rewards motion; liquidity-weighting rewards conviction. A market that prints a thousand shallow trades is not, for our purposes, more informative than a market that holds a deep book quietly.
Where a question is priced on more than one venue, contributing markets are mapped only when their resolution criteria are substantively identical. Mappings are published alongside each index and revised as criteria change.
Two markets that appear to price the same event often resolve on measurably different criteria. We treat resolution criteria as primary data and document differences before any aggregation.
One sheet per published index: what it measures, its scale, how it is constructed, and what its coverage does and does not yet include. The methodology version on each sheet is the one stamped on every published tick, so a reading is always traceable to the rules that produced it.
A composite index of the macro stress prediction markets and selected fiat anchors are pricing — recession risk, the rate path, inflation pressure, growth, and financial conditions — on a base-100-neutral scale.
A weighted composite of seven constituents. Where a prediction market is deep enough it supplies the value (recession risk, the rate path) and the matching official series serves as its anchor; where it is not (inflation, growth, the financial-conditions cluster of the 10-year yield, the broad dollar, and WTI crude), the official series enters as a minority constituent. Aggregate non-market weight is capped at 25%, so the market view always carries the majority. Each value is normalized against a documented neutral and composed through the shared engine: component caps, an equal-weight floor, divisor continuity, and a short smoothing window.
Scale: base 100 = neutral · higher = more macro stress priced (recession risk, inflation pressure, tighter financial conditions) · bands: Calm / Easing / Neutral / Strained / Stressed · version MIS-MACRO-1.1.0
Coverage confidence: low. Prediction-market majority: 75%; fiat anchors capped at 25%; 9/9 live constituents.
A cross-venue, depth-weighted measure of the geopolitical risk the prediction markets are pricing: 0-100, higher means more conflict and instability. Reads Polymarket and Kalshi together, which a single-venue index structurally cannot.
Each constituent is a canonical event with a declared risk direction: an escalation contract feeds its probability into the meter directly, a de-escalation contract (a ceasefire, a deal, a normalization) feeds the inverse, so good news lowers the reading. Constituents are depth-weighted with component caps, and events whose venue listings resolve on different criteria are flagged or excluded rather than blended. Coverage is currently Polymarket-led — the coverage badge on each page states the venue concentration plainly — and Kalshi listings join as their depth and resolution criteria qualify.
Scale: 0–100 · higher = more geopolitical escalation / instability · bands: Calm / Low / Elevated / High / Severe · version MGRI-1.1.0
Coverage confidence: low. Single-venue coverage; cross-venue weight below 20%. 15/15 live constituents.
A market-implied index of AI progress, adoption, commercialization, and optimism — capability milestones, revenue and adoption, against regulation, backlash, and compute bottlenecks. 50 = neutral outlook.
In research: the constituent framework (capability, commercialization, regulation and backlash, infrastructure) is built and tested on fixtures, and the index publishes a live level once real market mappings replace them.
Scale: 0–100 · higher = greater market-implied AI progress / adoption / optimism · bands: Stalling / Skeptical / Mixed / Constructive / Accelerating · version MIS-MAIO-0.1.0
A market-implied meter of priced political disruption — chamber control flips, contested processes, irregular exits — read across venues. It measures how much change the markets price, not which side benefits.
Composed through the shared engine: de-vigged midpoints, fee adjustment, depth weighting, component caps, divisor continuity.
Scale: 0–100 · higher = more change-of-control and contested-process priced · bands: Settled / Steady / Contested / Charged / Upended · version MPDI-1.0.0
Coverage confidence: medium. 1/1 live constituents; cross-venue weight 100%.
Where prediction-market dollars actually sit: each market's 24h volume is partitioned by category, and the published level is the leading category's share. A sociology instrument — it measures what people bet on, not what the prices say.
Composed through the shared engine: de-vigged midpoints, fee adjustment, depth weighting, component caps, divisor continuity.
Scale: natural unit · higher = a larger share of prediction-market dollars on the leading category · version MATI-1.0.0
Expected 2026 Fed path derived from prediction-market cut-count ladders (and a fiat FedWatch anchor) — published in its natural unit, expected cuts. A Macro subindex and a Macro constituent, not a top-level flagship.
Published in its natural unit: the expected number of 2026 Fed rate cuts implied by cut-count ladder markets, read across venues and depth-weighted where both venues clear a per-leg depth floor. A subindex of the Macro index and one of its constituents.
Scale: natural unit · higher = more expected 2026 Fed cuts (more easing priced) · version MIS-RATEPATH-1.0.0
The Iran corridor of the geopolitical risk meter — strike, escalation, and nuclear-timing markets read across venues.
Each constituent is a canonical event with a declared risk direction: an escalation contract feeds its probability into the meter directly, a de-escalation contract (a ceasefire, a deal, a normalization) feeds the inverse, so good news lowers the reading. Constituents are depth-weighted with component caps, and events whose venue listings resolve on different criteria are flagged or excluded rather than blended. Coverage is currently Polymarket-led — the coverage badge on each page states the venue concentration plainly — and Kalshi listings join as their depth and resolution criteria qualify.
Scale: 0–100 · higher = more geopolitical escalation / instability · bands: Calm / Low / Elevated / High / Severe · version MGRI-1.1.0
Coverage confidence: low. Single-venue coverage; cross-venue weight below 20%. 11/11 live constituents.
The Taiwan corridor — strait, blockade, and cross-strait election markets read across venues.
Each constituent is a canonical event with a declared risk direction: an escalation contract feeds its probability into the meter directly, a de-escalation contract (a ceasefire, a deal, a normalization) feeds the inverse, so good news lowers the reading. Constituents are depth-weighted with component caps, and events whose venue listings resolve on different criteria are flagged or excluded rather than blended. Coverage is currently Polymarket-led — the coverage badge on each page states the venue concentration plainly — and Kalshi listings join as their depth and resolution criteria qualify.
Scale: 0–100 · higher = more geopolitical escalation / instability · bands: Calm / Low / Elevated / High / Severe · version MGRI-1.1.0
Coverage confidence: low. Single-venue coverage; cross-venue weight below 20%. 1/1 live constituents.
The Ukraine corridor — territory, ceasefire-timing, and escalation markets across venues.
Each constituent is a canonical event with a declared risk direction: an escalation contract feeds its probability into the meter directly, a de-escalation contract (a ceasefire, a deal, a normalization) feeds the inverse, so good news lowers the reading. Constituents are depth-weighted with component caps, and events whose venue listings resolve on different criteria are flagged or excluded rather than blended. Coverage is currently Polymarket-led — the coverage badge on each page states the venue concentration plainly — and Kalshi listings join as their depth and resolution criteria qualify.
Scale: 0–100 · higher = more geopolitical escalation / instability · bands: Calm / Low / Elevated / High / Severe · version MIS-MGRI-1.0.0
Coverage confidence: low. Single-venue coverage; cross-venue weight below 20%. 1/1 live constituents.
The Gaza corridor — ceasefire and escalation markets read across venues (Polymarket's book is typically deeper than Kalshi's here).
Each constituent is a canonical event with a declared risk direction: an escalation contract feeds its probability into the meter directly, a de-escalation contract (a ceasefire, a deal, a normalization) feeds the inverse, so good news lowers the reading. Constituents are depth-weighted with component caps, and events whose venue listings resolve on different criteria are flagged or excluded rather than blended. Coverage is currently Polymarket-led — the coverage badge on each page states the venue concentration plainly — and Kalshi listings join as their depth and resolution criteria qualify.
Scale: 0–100 · higher = more geopolitical escalation / instability · bands: Calm / Low / Elevated / High / Severe · version MGRI-1.1.0
Coverage confidence: low. Single-venue coverage; cross-venue weight below 20%. 1/1 live constituents.
A calibration white paper — scoring the cross-venue aggregate against single-venue prices on resolved markets — follows once enough mapped markets have resolved to make the comparison meaningful. The harness is built; the evidence accrues.