The Gaza corridor, ceasefire and escalation markets read across venues (Polymarket's book is typically deeper than Kalshi's here).
Recent changes
2026-10-12
Published level departs from composed: Published level 60.8; composed level 26.54; gap 34.26 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-11
Published level departs from composed: Published level 62.6; composed level 25.71; gap 36.89 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-10
Published level departs from composed: Published level 65.3; composed level 37.84; gap 27.46 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-10
Published level departs from composed: Published level 65.1; composed level 30.36; gap 34.74 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 67.5; composed level 37.03; gap 30.47 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 67.5; composed level 31.29; gap 36.21 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-08
Published level departs from composed: Published level 68.3; composed level 28.39; gap 39.91 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-08
Published level departs from composed: Published level 69.1; composed level 31.34; gap 37.76 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.
Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.
Constituent detail
What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it. The mapping layer →
geo-gaza-israel-x-turkey-military-clash-before-20Weight in index 44.5%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Polymarket9¢exact
S 0.81 · D 0.83 · T 0.96 · R 0.68 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-3¢ over the window
geo-gaza-foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by-decemberWeight in index 22.6%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
Polymarket14¢exact
S 0.66 · D 0.63 · T 0.90 · R 0.53 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+3¢ over the window
geo-gaza-will-israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyondWeight in index 16.8%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
Polymarket5¢exact
S 0.70 · D 0.64 · T 0.91 · R 0.62 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-2¢ over the window
geo-gaza-will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensWeight in index 16.1%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Polymarket11¢exact
S 0.64 · D 0.50 · T 0.86 · R 0.65 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+2¢ over the window
Related markets
Markets in this family the selection scan has seen but not admitted, each held at a gate or awaiting a direction call, and every exit in the last thirty days.
Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?
87d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$12DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
21d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$35DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?
21d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$5DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Amcha Yisrael win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
55d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$93DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?
267d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$103DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$11DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?
145d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$371DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?
145d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$225DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?
25d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$79DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$88DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (both lexicons match — direction ambiguous)
$23DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will the Joint List be in the next Israeli government?
267d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$142DEPTH
HELD
EXITS · 30 DAYS
2026-10-06
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
band depth $0 (7-day median $223) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.3961 · S 0.40
EXITED
2026-10-02
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.6424 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.64
EXITED
2026-09-30
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-30
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-30
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
A market enters when it clears the eligibility gates and its selection score reaches the entry floor; membership is decided by score, weight by depth. A related market stays listed here until a decision is logged, and every exit for thirty days.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI-GAZA is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.
Mensor Gaza Corridor Index
Forthcoming
This index is built and in final review. It opens to readers shortly.