A cross-venue, depth-weighted measure of the geopolitical risk the prediction markets are pricing: 0-100, higher means more conflict and instability. Reads Polymarket and Kalshi together, which a single-venue index structurally cannot.
Composition changes from the daily reconstitution pass. The divisor keeps the published series continuous through every change.
What feeds the figure at last compute — market prices in cents, indicator values in their natural unit, and the component weight.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.