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GEOPOLITICS / CONFLICT RISK

Mensor Geopolitical Risk Index MGRI

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22.4▲ +0.224H · ±5.3Low
MAR 14, 2026 – OCT 13, 2026 · drawing 421 of 868 ticks
0204060RECONSTRUCTEDPUBLISHED FROM JUN 10MAR 14MAY 6JUN 28AUG 20OCT 13

Constituents 22

Constituents and weights are fixed

  1. US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?▲ 20¢25.0%
  2. Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?▲ 5¢25.0%
  3. Iranian regime falls before 2027▼ 9¢4.5%
  4. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?▼ 6¢4.4%
  5. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?▲ 4¢2.4%
  6. Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31▼ 2¢2.3%
  7. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?▲ 1¢2.3%
  8. Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?▲ 3¢2.3%
  9. NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?▼ 5¢2.3%
  10. US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?▼ 6¢2.3%
  11. Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027▼ 18¢2.3%
  12. Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?▼ 3¢2.3%
  13. Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?▼ 1¢2.3%
  14. Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?▲ 2¢2.3%
  15. Iran nuclear weapon before 2027▼ 6¢2.3%
  16. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?▼ 1¢2.3%
  17. NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?▼ 3¢2.3%
  18. China x Japan military clash before 2027?▼ 2¢2.3%
  19. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?▼ 19¢2.3%
  20. Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?▲ 2¢2.3%
  21. Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?▼ 1¢2.3%
  22. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?▲ 1¢2.3%

Index composability is forthcoming.

What it measures

A depth-weighted measure of the geopolitical risk the prediction markets are pricing: 0-100, higher means more conflict and instability. Reads across venues where resolution criteria and liquidity permit; coverage today is Polymarket-led, disclosed per tick in the coverage badge.

Recent changes

2026-10-12
Published level departs from composed: Published level 22.5; composed level 28.59; gap 6.09 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-11
Published level departs from composed: Published level 22.1; composed level 29.15; gap 7.05 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-11
Published level departs from composed: Published level 22.3; composed level 33.96; gap 11.66 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-10
Published level departs from composed: Published level 21.5; composed level 29.60; gap 8.10 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 21.1; composed level 31.77; gap 10.67 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 21.6; composed level 40.82; gap 19.22 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 20.8; composed level 33.66; gap 12.86 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 21.1; composed level 41.04; gap 19.94 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE

Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.

News

pakistantelegraph.comMarkets too ready for conflict over Taiwan US diplomatOCT 10
rigzone.comOil Prices Come Under PressureOCT 2
cyprus-mail.comMHV cuts first - half loss to €5 . 07m despite Middle East impactOCT 2
zerohedge.comHow The Iran Conflict Opened A New Threat To The Global Monetary SystemOCT 2
businesstimes.com.sgSouth Korea , Japan stocks slide as Asian shares fallOCT 2
hellenicshippingnews.comMABUX : October Bunker Prices Expected to Remain Volatile | Hellenic Shipping News WorldwideOCT 2
prnewswire.comStichting Building the Bridge Foundation : Dutch Foreign Policy Think Tank Urges Trump , Xi , Putin to Open Crisis Talks NowOCT 1
bankingnews.grEmpty storage in Europe , closed Hormuz , gas at 100 euros – A provocative proposal from the EUSEP 28

Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.

Constituent detail

What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it. The mapping layer →

geo-iran-us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-ocWeight in index 25.0%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Polymarket81¢exact
S 0.89 · D 0.93 · T 0.96 · R 0.79 · TIER $5,000
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+20¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
presstv.co.ukIran scolds US , allies for abusing UNSC to advance own political agendasOCT 2
middle-east-online.comUS cites Egypt Iran war role in lifting military aid conditionsOCT 2
financialpost.comGold wavers as traders weigh higher bond yields , oil pricesOCT 2
geo-iran-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normWeight in index 4.4%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Polymarket14¢exact
S 0.89 · D 0.99 · T 1.00 · R 0.69 · TIER $5,000
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-6¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
gazettextra.comTrump and Iran agree on one thing . The US election calendar isnt driving their decisions on the warOCT 10
economictimes.indiatimes.comTrump and Iran agree on one thing . The US election calendar isnt driving their decisions on the warOCT 10
business-standard.comUS prepares military for possible new Iran strikes , Trump yet to decideOCT 8
geo-iran-israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-througWeight in index 2.4%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Polymarket85¢exact
S 0.89 · D 0.98 · T 0.98 · R 0.73 · TIER $5,000
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+4¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
newsday.comA US - brokered ceasefire was supposed to end the war in Gaza . A year later , progress has stalledOCT 10
japantoday.comA U . S .- brokered ceasefire was supposed to end the war in Gaza . A year later , progress has stalledOCT 10
ynetnews.comWho is Ali al - Amoudi , the man now leading Hamas in Gaza ?OCT 10
geo-gaza-will-israeli-forces-withdraw-from-beyondWeight in index 2.3%

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Polymarket5¢exact
S 0.70 · D 0.64 · T 0.91 · R 0.62 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-2¢ over the window
geo-iran-us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-3Weight in index 2.3%

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket14¢exact
S 0.84 · D 0.93 · T 0.98 · R 0.65 · TIER $5,000
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+1¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
pakistantelegraph.comI should have won 8 Nobel Peace Prizes : Trump slams Nobel Committee for awarding Navi PillayOCT 10
jpost.comDonald Trump slams Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Navi Pillay over snubOCT 10
business-standard.comUS prepares military for possible new Iran strikes , Trump yet to decideOCT 8
geo-gaza-foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by-decemberWeight in index 2.3%

Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?

Polymarket14¢exact
S 0.66 · D 0.63 · T 0.90 · R 0.53 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+3¢ over the window
geo-broad-nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-octoberWeight in index 2.3%

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Polymarket6¢exact
S 0.83 · D 0.94 · T 0.97 · R 0.59 · TIER $5,000
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-5¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
dailymail.comRussian agents defecated in Finnish politician toiletsOCT 6
dailypress.netUS treating adversaries better than allies a recipe for disasterOCT 6
theglobeandmail.comI fought for investment in Canada defence as international order erodedOCT 2
geo-ukraine-will-trump-meet-with-vladimir-putin-in-2Weight in index 2.3%

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?

Polymarket80¢exact
S 0.68 · D 0.63 · T 0.90 · R 0.60 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-1¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
dailypress.netUS treating adversaries better than allies a recipe for disasterOCT 6
livemint.comAmazon Great Indian Festival and Flipkart Big Billion Days in Oct : Which debit , credit cards offer the best deals ?OCT 2
shipandbunker.comOil Jumps 4 % As Washington Dispatches More Ships , Troops , to Middle EastOCT 2
geo-ukraine-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-not-meet-beforeWeight in index 2.3%

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Polymarket96¢exact
S 0.87 · D 0.97 · T 0.99 · R 0.67
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+2¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
hindustantimes.comDespite close ties , PM Modi presses for Ukraine peace : Russian President PutinOCT 2
businesstoday.inDespite very good personal relations …: Putin says PM Modi discusses the Russia Ukraine war every time they meetOCT 2
politico.euUkraine war chest is running low at the worst possible moment – POLITICOSEP 30
geo-taiwan-china-x-taiwan-military-clash-before-202Weight in index 2.3%

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Polymarket5¢exact
S 0.72 · D 0.61 · T 0.90 · R 0.71 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-1¢ over the window
geo-broad-nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-decemberWeight in index 2.3%

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket26¢exact
S 0.86 · D 0.95 · T 0.99 · R 0.67 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-3¢ over the window
COINCIDENT COVERAGE
dailypress.netUS treating adversaries better than allies a recipe for disasterOCT 6
dailymail.comRussian agents defecated in Finnish politician toiletsOCT 6
bankingnews.grGermany : Merz collapses , AfD soars , hospitals go to war - The nuclear bunker awakensOCT 2
geo-broad-china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027Weight in index 2.3%

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Polymarket4¢exact
S 0.79 · D 0.89 · T 0.97 · R 0.54 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-2¢ over the window
geo-gaza-will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensWeight in index 2.3%

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?

Polymarket11¢exact
S 0.64 · D 0.50 · T 0.86 · R 0.65 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+2¢ over the window
geo-taiwan-will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027Weight in index 2.3%

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Polymarket8¢exact
S 0.83 · D 0.94 · T 0.99 · R 0.60 · TIER $250
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-1¢ over the window
geo-ukraine-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-december-3Weight in index 2.3%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket13¢exact
S 0.79 · D 0.86 · T 0.96 · R 0.59 · TIER $1,000
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+1¢ over the window

The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.

Mensor Geopolitical Risk Index

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