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MACRO

Mensor Macro Index MMI

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81.3▲ +1.424H · ±10.0Calm
JUL 9, 2026 – OCT 13, 2026 · drawing 421 of 1000 ticks
708090100110120100.0 · NEUTRALADDEDJUL 9AUG 2AUG 26SEP 19OCT 13

Constituents 9

Constituents and weights are fixed

  1. Recession risk▼ 3¢50.0%
  2. Rate path (cuts priced)▼ 27¢25.0%
  3. Inflation (YoY %)▼ 11¢5.6%
  4. Growth (nowcast %)▼ 137¢5.6%
  5. Financial conditions (NFCI)▲ 6¢2.8%
  6. 10y Treasury yield (%)▲ 54¢2.8%
  7. Broad dollar, YoY (%)▲ 48¢2.8%
  8. Initial claims (weekly)2.8%
  9. WTI crude, YoY (%)▲ 2969¢2.8%

Index composability is forthcoming.

What it measures

A composite index of the macro stress prediction markets and selected fiat anchors are pricing, recession risk, the rate path, inflation pressure, growth, and financial conditions, on a base-100-neutral scale.

Recent changes

2026-09-28
US recession in 2026: re-admitted: members live again after the August 6 capture outage; excluded in error by the 72h stale rule
ADDED

Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.

News

businesstimes.com.sgSpore mortgage rates rise following Fed hike : What home owners should look out forOCT 2
thedailybeast.comDesperate Donald Trump Hosts White House Dinner for People Who Keep Calling Him DumbOCT 2
mymotherlode.comConfidence about the economy is in short supply despite a relatively solid job marketOCT 2
winchesterstar.comConfidence about the economy is in short supply despite a relatively solid job marketOCT 2
wral.comConfidence about the economy is in short supply despite a relatively solid job marketOCT 2
zerohedge.comHow The Iran Conflict Opened A New Threat To The Global Monetary SystemOCT 2
townhall.comRemembering the False Gloom and Doom of the 1992 Elections and the Upcoming MidtermsOCT 1
patriotpost.usRemembering the False Gloom and Doom of the 1992 Elections and the Upcoming MidtermsOCT 1

Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.

Constituent detail

What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it.

INFLATIONWeight in index 5.6%

Inflation (YoY %)

Fiat3.35
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-11¢ over the window
GROWTHWeight in index 5.6%

Growth (nowcast %)

Fiat3.59
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS-137¢ over the window
OILWeight in index 2.8%

WTI crude, YoY (%)

Fiat53.93
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+2969¢ over the window

The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MMI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.

Mensor Macro Index

Forthcoming

This index is built and in final review. It opens to readers shortly.

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