JUL 9, 2026 – OCT 13, 2026 · drawing 421 of 1000 ticks
What it measures
Expected 2026 Fed path derived from prediction-market cut-count ladders, published in its natural unit, expected cuts. Horizon: calendar 2026 cut count; this ladder cannot express a hike. MRPI-2 (rolling eight meetings, signed) is awaiting approval. A Macro subindex and a Macro constituent, not a top-level flagship.
Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.
Constituent detail
This index publishes in its natural unit; its composition is one leg per venue, from the latest tick.
Venue
Value
Depth
Passes floor
KalshiE[cuts] (kalshi)
0.00 cuts
$16,552
yes
PolymarketE[cuts] (polymarket)
0.05 cuts
$152,533
yes
Related markets
Markets in this family the selection scan has seen but not admitted, each held at a gate or awaiting a direction call, and every exit in the last thirty days.
universe 15360 · in family 128 · qualified 33 · held 33 · excluded (30d) 6 · added 0
Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
87d to resolution · confidence 0.3 below 0.7
$52DEPTH
HELD
A market enters when it clears the eligibility gates and its selection score reaches the entry floor; membership is decided by score, weight by depth. A related market stays listed here until a decision is logged, and every exit for thirty days.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MRPI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.
Mensor Rate Path Index
Forthcoming
This index is built and in final review. It opens to readers shortly.