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GEOPOLITICS · SUBINDEX OF MGRI

MGRI-UKRAINEMensor Ukraine Corridor Index

MGRI-UKRAINEMensor Ukraine Corridor Index
Elevated55.2
0–100 · higher = more geopolitical escalation / instability · bands: Calm / Low / Elevated / High / Severeas of Wed, 10 Jun 2026 20:47:03 UTC · published series
WHAT IT MEASURES

The Ukraine corridor — territory, ceasefire-timing, and escalation markets across venues.

RECENT CHANGES

2026-06-10
Ukraine agrees to a US-backed ceasefire framework by June 30 — de-escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 — de-escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
Russia enters Zaporizhzhia city by June 30 — escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
Russia enters Zaporizhzhia city by June 30 — below event depth floor ($34 book); re-admit when depth clears — audit loop 2 (founder program 2026-06-10; INDEX_AUDIT_LOOP1.md)
REMOVED

Composition changes from the daily reconstitution pass. The divisor keeps the published series continuous through every change.

CONSTITUENTS

What feeds the figure at last compute — market prices in cents, indicator values in their natural unit, and the component weight.

GEO-UKRAINE-PEACE-DEAL-20261 contract
665224Polymarket27¢100.0%

The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI-UKRAINE is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.