The Ukraine corridor, territory, ceasefire-timing, and escalation markets read across venues.
Recent changes
2026-10-11
Published level departs from composed: Published level 81.9; composed level 84.49; gap 2.59 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-10
Published level departs from composed: Published level 81.7; composed level 86.46; gap 4.76 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 81.3; composed level 85.79; gap 4.49 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-08
Published level departs from composed: Published level 81.0; composed level 85.26; gap 4.26 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-07
Published level departs from composed: Published level 80.8; composed level 85.38; gap 4.58 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-06
Published level departs from composed: Published level 80.4; composed level 85.35; gap 4.95 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-04
Published level departs from composed: Published level 80.1; composed level 85.45; gap 5.35 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?: de-escalation, depth $1,562, confidence 0.6
ADDED
Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.
Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.
Constituent detail
What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it. The mapping layer →
geo-ukraine-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-not-meet-beforeWeight in index 38.1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Polymarket96¢exact
S 0.87 · D 0.97 · T 0.99 · R 0.67
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+2¢ over the window
geo-ukraine-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-december-3Weight in index 36.9%
Markets in this family the selection scan has seen but not admitted, each held at a gate or awaiting a direction call, and every exit in the last thirty days.
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$17DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$2DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2027?
267d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$6DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$12DEPTH
HELD
Kalshi
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?
87d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$252DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$19DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$20DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$44DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$134DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$249DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?
267d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$276DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$250DEPTH
HELD
EXITS · 30 DAYS
2026-09-29
Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
A market enters when it clears the eligibility gates and its selection score reaches the entry floor; membership is decided by score, weight by depth. A related market stays listed here until a decision is logged, and every exit for thirty days.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI-UKRAINE is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.
Mensor Ukraine Corridor Index
Forthcoming
This index is built and in final review. It opens to readers shortly.