House control flips in the 2026 midterms
Polymarket83¢Kalshi77¢
Constituents and weights are fixed
Index composability is forthcoming.
A market-implied meter of priced political disruption, chamber control flips, contested processes, irregular exits, read across venues. Not a partisan thermometer: it measures how much change the markets price, not which side benefits.
Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.
No coverage has been linked to the latest reading.
What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it. The mapping layer →
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MPDI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.
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