← All indices
POLITICS / POLICY DISRUPTION

MPDIMensor Policy Disruption Index

MPDIMensor Policy Disruption Index
Charged78.2-1.2 · 24h · ±11.5
0–100 · higher = more change-of-control and contested-process priced · bands: Settled / Steady / Contested / Charged / Upendedas of Thu, 11 Jun 2026 23:56:13 UTC · published series
WHAT IT MEASURES

A market-implied meter of priced political disruption — chamber control flips, contested processes, irregular exits — read across venues. It measures how much change the markets price, not which side benefits.

RECENT CHANGES

2026-06-10
House control flips in the 2026 midterms — escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
OR-06 House race: Democratic hold — de-escalation
ADDED

Composition changes from the daily reconstitution pass. The divisor keeps the published series continuous through every change.

CONSTITUENTS

What feeds the figure at last compute — market prices in cents, indicator values in their natural unit, and the component weight.

POL-HOUSE-CONTROL-FLIP-20262 contracts
562802Polymarket83¢100.0%
CONTROLH-2026-DKalshi77¢100.0%

The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MPDI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.