A market-implied meter of priced political disruption — chamber control flips, contested processes, irregular exits — read across venues. It measures how much change the markets price, not which side benefits.
Composition changes from the daily reconstitution pass. The divisor keeps the published series continuous through every change.
What feeds the figure at last compute — market prices in cents, indicator values in their natural unit, and the component weight.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MPDI is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.