← MGRI-GAZATHE MAPPING LAYER · AS OF 2026-10-13
MGRI-GAZAConstituents
The canonical events feeding the figure, and the venue contracts mapped to each. Two contracts join the same event only where their resolution criteria agree; a flagged row carries a caveat from the engine, not a judgment from the page.
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?risk 9%
CORRIDOR GAZA · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 44.5% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $1,331 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket665484 · resolves on exact9¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?risk 14%
CORRIDOR GAZA · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 22.6% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $526 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2749311 · resolves on exact14¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31risk 95%
CORRIDOR GAZA · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 16.8% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $313 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2639520 · resolves on exact5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?risk 11%
CORRIDOR GAZA · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 16.1% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $286 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket1642010 · resolves on exact11¢
This page renders the mapping detail that publishes with each tick. The full mapping ledger (proposed candidates, resolution-criteria adjudication, and conflict review) is maintained in the pipeline and is not yet public. Methodology: how MGRI-GAZA is built →