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GEOPOLITICS / CONFLICT RISK · SUBINDEX OF MGRI

MGRI-IRANMensor Iran Corridor Index

MGRI-IRANMensor Iran Corridor Index
Elevated42.2-2.9 · 24h · ±8.8
0–100 · higher = more geopolitical escalation / instability · bands: Calm / Low / Elevated / High / Severeas of Thu, 11 Jun 2026 23:56:12 UTC · published series
WHAT IT MEASURES

The Iran corridor of the geopolitical risk meter — strike, escalation, and nuclear-timing markets read across venues.

RECENT CHANGES

2026-06-10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30 — de-escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
Iran nuclear weapon before 2027 — escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
Hormuz transit calls above 60 (7-day MA) before 2027 — de-escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30 — escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 — de-escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 — de-escalation
ADDED
2026-06-10
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — tenor cluster: superseded by geo-iran-regime-fall-2026 (1.7c short-tenor leg added weight, not information) — audit loop 2 (founder program 2026-06-10; INDEX_AU
REMOVED
2026-06-10
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — escalation
ADDED

Composition changes from the daily reconstitution pass. The divisor keeps the published series continuous through every change.

CONSTITUENTS

What feeds the figure at last compute — market prices in cents, indicator values in their natural unit, and the component weight.

GEO-IRAN-WILL-THE-U-S-INVADE-IRAN-BEFORE-20271 contract
665374Polymarket19¢25.0%
GEO-IRAN-US-PEACE-JUN261 contract
1962237Polymarket34¢15.5%
GEO-IRAN-REGIME-FALL-20261 contract
663583Polymarket13¢13.8%
GEO-IRAN-US-NUCLEAR-DEAL-20261 contract
665325Polymarket73¢11.1%
GEO-IRAN-HORMUZ-NORMAL-JUN261 contract
1971905Polymarket21¢6.3%
GEO-IRAN-KHARG-ISLAND-JUN261 contract
1708086Polymarket5.6%
GEO-IRAN-ISRAEL-PEACE-JUN261 contract
2002564Polymarket4.5%
GEO-IRAN-URANIUM-SURRENDER-JUN261 contract
1731345Polymarket4.5%
GEO-IRAN-NUKE-20261 contract
677396Polymarket4.5%
GEO-IRAN-US-NUCLEAR-DEAL-JUN261 contract
957019Polymarket47¢4.5%
GEO-IRAN-HORMUZ-NORMAL-20261 contract
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101Kalshi64¢4.5%

The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI-IRAN is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.