The Iran corridor of the geopolitical risk meter, strike, escalation, and nuclear-timing markets read across venues.
Recent changes
2026-10-13
Published level departs from composed: Published level 24.3; composed level 33.05; gap 8.75 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-12
Published level departs from composed: Published level 23.6; composed level 27.07; gap 3.47 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-11
Published level departs from composed: Published level 23.4; composed level 28.63; gap 5.23 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-11
Published level departs from composed: Published level 23.5; composed level 31.36; gap 7.86 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-10
Published level departs from composed: Published level 23.1; composed level 28.90; gap 5.80 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 22.6; composed level 28.90; gap 6.30 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 23.3; composed level 40.20; gap 16.90 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
2026-10-09
Published level departs from composed: Published level 22.4; composed level 31.35; gap 8.95 points against a tolerance of 2.0. The published level is a mean of the prior published levels and the current composed value, so it lags the basket. The tick is published as computed; the departure is disclosed here, not halted.
NOTE
Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.
Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.
Constituent detail
What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it. The mapping layer →
geo-iran-us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-ocWeight in index 31.3%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Polymarket82¢exact
S 0.89 · D 0.93 · T 0.96 · R 0.79 · TIER $5,000
PUBLISHED HISTORY · TO 30 DAYS+21¢ over the window
Markets in this family the selection scan has seen but not admitted, each held at a gate or awaiting a direction call, and every exit in the last thirty days.
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$99DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$77DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$31DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?
25d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$321DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$29DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$6DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?
85d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$55DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$10DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$20DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?
25d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$5DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$188DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$184DEPTH
HELD
EXITS · 30 DAYS
2026-09-30
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?
score 0.1946 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.19
EXITED
2026-09-30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-30
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?
score 0.1946 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.19
EXITED
2026-09-29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Iranian regime falls before 2027
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
Iran nuclear weapon before 2027
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
A market enters when it clears the eligibility gates and its selection score reaches the entry floor; membership is decided by score, weight by depth. A related market stays listed here until a decision is logged, and every exit for thirty days.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI-IRAN is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.
Mensor Iran Corridor Index
Forthcoming
This index is built and in final review. It opens to readers shortly.