← MGRI-IRANTHE MAPPING LAYER · AS OF 2026-10-14
MGRI-IRANConstituents
The canonical events feeding the figure, and the venue contracts mapped to each. Two contracts join the same event only where their resolution criteria agree; a flagged row carries a caveat from the engine, not a judgment from the page.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?risk 19%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 31.3% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $78,919 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket4641065 · resolves on exact82¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?risk 87%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 18.4% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $48,472 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2176270 · resolves on exact14¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?risk 18%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 14.5% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $38,041 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket665374 · resolves on exact18¢
Iranian regime falls before 2027risk 6%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 10.8% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $28,436 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket663583 · resolves on exact6¢
Iran nuclear weapon before 2027risk 3%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 6.3% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $420 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket677396 · resolves on exact3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?risk 16%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 6.3% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $2,405 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket3399459 · resolves on exact84¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?risk 86%
CORRIDOR IRAN · DE-ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 6.3% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $4,628 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket2696747 · resolves on exact14¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?risk 14%
CORRIDOR IRAN · ESCALATORY · WEIGHT 6.3% · 1 VENUE · DEPTH $10,664 · DISPERSION 0.000 · 1 CONTRACT
Polymarket3128888 · resolves on exact14¢
This page renders the mapping detail that publishes with each tick. The full mapping ledger (proposed candidates, resolution-criteria adjudication, and conflict review) is maintained in the pipeline and is not yet public. Methodology: how MGRI-IRAN is built →