The Taiwan corridor, strait, blockade, and cross-strait election markets read across venues.
Recent changes
2026-10-05
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: band depth $136 (7-day median $247) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.693
REMOVED
2026-10-05
Impact: level unchanged at 4.6 (re-weighting absorbed the change). Membership changes print as disclosed jumps; no divisor re-base.
NOTE
2026-10-04
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: escalation, depth $318, confidence 0.6
ADDED
2026-10-04
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: band depth $235 (7-day median $244) below the $250 hard floor; score 0.6952
REMOVED
2026-10-03
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?: escalation, depth $293, confidence 0.6
ADDED
2026-10-03
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?: escalation, depth $3,761, confidence 0.6
ADDED
2026-10-03
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?: escalation, depth $287, confidence 0.6
ADDED
2026-10-02
No live constituents, the index has stalled; the last published reading stands.: The hourly publish found no constituent clearing the depth floor. Discovery keeps scanning; the reading resumes when one qualifies.
NOTE
Composition changes from the hourly selection scan and the daily reconstitution. Every change is logged and the seam is stamped on the series.
Coverage that coincided with the reading. The Mensor links moves to reporting; it does not claim one caused the other.
Constituent detail
What feeds the figure at last compute, each constituent on its own: venue prices in cents or indicator values in their natural unit, its weight, its published history, and the coverage that coincided with it. The mapping layer →
geo-taiwan-will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027Weight in index 50.0%
Markets in this family the selection scan has seen but not admitted, each held at a gate or awaiting a direction call, and every exit in the last thirty days.
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$17DEPTH
HELD
Polymarket
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
86d to resolution · risk direction unassigned (no direction lexicon match)
$4DEPTH
HELD
EXITS · 30 DAYS
2026-10-05
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
band depth $136 (7-day median $247) below the $250 hard floor on 7-day median; score 0.693 · S 0.69
EXITED
2026-10-04
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
band depth $235 (7-day median $244) below the $250 hard floor; score 0.6952 · S 0.70
EXITED
2026-10-02
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
score 0.6745 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.67
EXITED
2026-09-30
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
China invades Taiwan by end of 2026
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
2026-09-29
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
score 0.1987 below exit floor 0.3 · S 0.20
EXITED
A market enters when it clears the eligibility gates and its selection score reaches the entry floor; membership is decided by score, weight by depth. A related market stays listed here until a decision is logged, and every exit for thirty days.
The Mensor reads the market; it does not take positions in it. MGRI-TAIWAN is a measurement, not a forecast and not a tradable product. Prediction-market prices are risk-neutral and approximate probabilities.
Mensor Taiwan Corridor Index
Forthcoming
This index is built and in final review. It opens to readers shortly.